Genetically Modified Diseases: The Terrifying Future of Warfare

Imagine a swarm of nanobots. They look just like mosquitos, but they’re carrying a designer pathogen. Their bite isn’t a bite; it’s an injection of a virus, and thanks to a bit of gene splicing, all vaccines and treatments have been rendered useless. The nation that released the swarm has done so with no risk of the virus infecting their own population, as the insects are using AI to pick their targets, and the pathogen itself is only effective on specific ethnic groups.

Could this happen tomorrow? No, fortunately, nanotech and genetic engineering aren’t there yet. Could it happen in 2035? Possibly, and it’s a threat that’s being taken very seriously by both the U.S. and Russia, who are taking steps to protect against their national DNA leaking out through at-home ancestry testing kits.

The History of Biowarfare

Humans have been engaging in biological warfare, that’s using weapons to spread disease among people, plants, or animals, for thousands of years. Early examples include tularaemia patients being driven into enemy lands in 15000 BC, Scythian archers in 400 BC contaminating their arrows by sticking them in dead bodies before shooting, and Tartar forces catapulting plague-infected corpses into Caffa in the 14th century. They had intended to kill with the stench alone, but, of course, it was the disease that did the job.

With advancements in biotechnology came advances in biowarfare, and soon aggressors could bypass messy methods involving cadavers or jars of live snakes and manufacture pathogens in the lab. But, while less gross, we were still just flinging stuff that already occurred in nature at each other.

Then, we discovered DNA and its structure. Suddenly, life itself was demystified and reduced to the simple building blocks of A, T, C, and G, and as soon as we knew what they were, we started messing around with them, and in 1972, biochemist Paul Berg became the first to successfully combine the DNA of two different organisms. A monkey virus and a lambda virus. In 1973, Herbert Boyer and Stanley Cohen inserted the DNA from one bacteria into another, and in 1974, Rudolf Jaenish and Beatrice Mintz created the first genetically modified animal—a mouse whose embryo was injected with the DNA of the SV40 virus, which prevented the formation of liver and brain tumours.

The discoveries created an explosion of gene research, which led to bacteria able to produce human insulin, pest-resistant crops, and GloFish, the genetically engineered fluorescent fish you can keep as a pet if they’re not prohibited in your country. Admittedly, some of these advancements were more useful than others.

Unfortunately, as is human nature, while Mintz and Jaenish were engineering their tumour-free mice, the Soviet Union was setting up Biopreparat, a biological warfare programme aiming to devise a second generation of bioweapons enhanced by genetic modification. They worked on anthrax, plague, smallpox, tularemia, and Marburg, and their objectives included antibiotic resistance, genetically combined “superbugs,” and viruses hidden inside bacteria that would act as a kind of Trojan horse and dual infection.

Fortunately, despite years of research, multiple successful antibiotic and vaccine-resistant superbugs, and many other countries establishing their own bioweapons programs, the whole thing never really caught on. Mostly due to cost, time, dodgy delivery methods, and a frightening lack of precision. Unfortunately, recent advances in biotech and genetic engineering are solving these problems and changing the landscape of biowarfare once again.

DIY Gene Editing

The first problems to be solved were time and money, as after the research has been done once, it’s terrifyingly easy to replicate.

For example, in 2012, a team of researchers from the University of Wisconsin announced a terrifying breakthrough. They’d managed to alter the amino acid profile of the bird flu virus, allowing it to reproduce in mammal lungs and be transmitted by coughing and sneezing.

Their intention had been to solve the riddle of how the virus could become airborne among humans, which they did achieve. But, as they published their paper, they were met with horror rather than accolades. The New York Times described it as an “engineered doomsday,” and the White House announced that it would halt funding for this and any other project that could make viruses more lethal.

Unfortunately, there’s no way to turn back time and undo the work. As biotech expert Gaymon Bennett explained, “It took specialized facilities and millions of dollars for the University of Wisconsin researchers to figure out how to create the amino acid sequence that would allow the virus to reproduce in mammal lungs, but once you publish the sequences … once they’ve done that work, it would take a competent physician a few thousand dollars and a few weeks to reproduce the result.”

This issue is made worse by technologies like the introduction of CRISPR in 2013. This incredible tech has made gene editing quicker, easier, and cheaper than ever before. It works by creating a synthetic strand of RNA matching the sequence of the target DNA in an organism’s genome. This RNA strand is attached to an enzyme which can cut the DNA. Once cut, the DNA can be removed, and new DNA added.

In 2014, a scientist explained that CRISPR had affected both the cost and duration of gene editing dramatically, and what used to take $20,000 and 18 months had been reduced to $3,000 and 3 weeks.

But that was 2014. Now, it’s possible to buy a mail-order DIY CRISPR kit like the one created by biohacker Josiah Zayner. For just $130, he sent customers everything they needed to edit E. coli so it’d be resistant to the antibiotic streptomycin. Of course, he ensured it was a non-pathogenic form of E. coli so as not to release a new superform on the world, except in Germany, where the Bavarian Health and Food Safety Authority found the 2 kits they tested contained potentially pathogenic bacteria.

Naturally, it’s still available for sale.

Designer Genes

The biggest warfare threat to come out of CRISPR is known as “designer genes.” This is the classic process of inserting something like an “anti-freeze” gene from a flounder in a tomato to make it frost-resistant. The most obvious application in warfare is to insert the gene for vaccine, antibiotic, or antiviral resistance into a pathogen to render the enemy defenceless.

Of course, this is old news, as Biopreparat were doing it for years. The difference now is that Soviet scientists only had access to a few complete genome sequences, so their menu of offensive genes was very limited. Today, with new technologies and whole genome sequencing, there are more than 200,000 bacteria and 4,000 viruses fully sequenced, and they’re easily available online. This essentially provides a blueprint for any trait scientists would like their pathogen to have.

But wait, it gets worse. In 2002, Eckard Wimmer, working at the State University of New York, got the blueprint for polio, obtained some mail-order DNA, and, in just 2 years, managed to assemble the virus from scratch. In tests, it killed mice as quickly as the original. This is a virus that has been eradicated in the U.S. and in all other countries except two.

Now imagine someone wanted to do the same with smallpox. A disease so deadly it’s only held at two facilities, one in the U.S. and one in Russia. Theoretically, with just the genome sequence, they could create it from scratch, with no need to gain access to either facility, and they could add in resistance to our current vaccines for good measure. Fortunately, there is one stumbling block. While polio only has 7741 bases, smallpox has 185,000, making it much too complex for current methods. For now, at least.

Binary Biological Weapons

Another application of genetic modification in warfare are “binary biological weapons.” As the name suggests, these contain two components, both fairly innocuous or at least not fatal on their own. But, combined, they become much more deadly.

In genetically modified binary weapons, these 2 components are often a host bacteria and a virulent plasmid, a small extrachromosomal DNA fragment that codes for virulence or another pathogenic function. On its own, the host bacteria wouldn’t be harmful, but once the plasmid was inserted, which could even take place during the flight of a missile, it would turn back into a deadly pathogen.

This overcomes the massive obstacle of bioweapons that has put nations off developing their own programs. You see, the trouble with traditional bioweapons is that the tiny pathogens are notoriously difficult to contain, and a leak can be devastating to the producer’s own population.

Seeing as experts are still battling over whether or not this is what happened with COVID-19, instead, I’ll give a Biopreparat example. In 1979, a technician removed a blocked filter, which led to a production facility blasting a nearby ceramics plant with a huge cloud of anthrax. 105 of their own citizens were killed, along with 100 stray dogs who were used as scapegoats.

Stealth Viruses

Various defence agencies are also concerned about “stealth viruses.” These are viral infections that can be introduced into a human body using a vector. Once inside, the virus can lay dormant until a trigger mechanism is activated, and suddenly the effects are felt. This could be anything from the flu to a cancer-causing virus that triggers the growth of tumours. It sounds far-fetched, but there are already examples in nature, like herpes and shingles.

The benefit of this type of attack over past weapons is twofold. Firstly it dramatically increases the odds of the perpetrator remaining anonymous. This is essential to reduce the risk of sanctions or counterattacks.

Secondly, if the attempt at stealth fails, the aggressor will be able to use the threat of activation of the virus as blackmail. Governments could be put in a position where they give in to the demands of their blackmailer or face hundreds of thousands of their citizens developing cancer at the touch of a button.

Host-Swapping Diseases

Another area of concern are “host-swapping diseases.” The vast majority of viruses exist in their hosts, causing little to no damage. For example, bats act as unharmed reservoirs for Ebola, waterfowl for Eastern Equine Encephalitis, and rodents harbour the hantavirus.

However, occasionally, these viruses can make the jump from their host species to another, which can render them much more virulent and deadly. An example would be HIV jumping from chimpanzees to humans and causing AIDS.

In past bioweapons programs, there were only a limited number of zoonotics available to choose from, and not all would be immediately effective on the battlefield. HIV, for example, would take years to have a significant effect. Today, though, advances in biotech mean that scientists can have their pick, select any animal-based virus, and genetically modify it to infect humans.

Gene Therapy

Gene therapy is possibly one of the greatest advancements in our quest to rid the world of genetic diseases or even unwanted genetic traits. So far, researchers have reactivated hair cells, cured deafness, and are working on a cure for diabetes by splicing an insulin-producing gene into pancreatic tissue.

However, authorities have raised concerns that gene therapy could be applied as a weapon. Just as scientists can insert helpful genes, they can also insert harmful ones. Ones that cause cell death, infertility, or really anything you can imagine. And, terrifyingly, in the case of germline therapy, it can be designed to pass on to all future generations.

This is, however, one of the least likely to be used in biowarfare. Firstly because you’d have to physically treat your targets, and secondly, because it’s such a slow burn. However, that doesn’t mean it’s useless. For a group attempting an individual assassination, it wouldn’t be impossible to apply the therapy covertly as part of some other treatment regime.

Designer Diseases

For a targeted attack, though, defence agencies are much more concerned about “designer diseases.” We’re not there yet, but scientists are almost at the point where they will be able to design and create a brand-new disease from scratch—reverse engineering it based on the properties, traits, and method of harm they want it to have.

Theoretically, it would be possible to create a pathogen that could produce a lethal toxin, attack the central nervous system, or trigger instant cell death.

Even more disturbingly, these designer diseases could be made to target specific individuals or, horrifyingly, entire ethnic groups. Effectively creating a racist bomb.

This would remove another of the major barriers to a genetically modified war, the lack of precision. As has been demonstrated by Covid, the amount of travel in today’s society means that releasing an aggressive virus in one country does not guarantee that it’ll stay there. This could mean accidentally infecting a friendly nation or, worse, the attacker’s own civilians.

With a genetically targeted bioweapon, though, the issue is resolved. The idea is that they could even be engineered to be transmitted harmlessly throughout the population until reaching the target and becoming active. This means civilians could be used to carry the disease across borders, completely evading airport security.

A popular hypothetical scenario is that the virus could be tailored to attack just one person based on their genetics—a foreign leader, for example. The DNA could be easily obtained at any drinks or dinner event. Then all a would-be assassin would need to do is sit back and wait as the infection spreads until eventually coming into contact with the target. By this point, tracing the source would be near impossible, and sanctions would be extremely unlikely.

The good news is that we don’t yet have this capability. The bad news is that in May 2007, the Russian government banned all exports of biological samples, apparently due to reports that Western institutions were developing genetic bioweapons designed to target the Russian population. Then, in 2019, the US Department of Defence advised all military personnel against using at-home genetic test kits due to “unforeseen security consequences.” So clearly, neither nation is ruling out future genetically targeted weapons.

What Stands Between Us and a Genetically Modified War?

So what stands between us and a genetically modified World War III? Not a huge amount, unfortunately. We do have some regulations in place in the form of the Cold War Era Biological Weapons Convention, which has been signed by 175 countries, prohibiting their development of bioweapons. But, unlike nuclear facilities, bioengineering facilities aren’t easy to spot, and any potentially offensive work can be easily concealed.

We’re also lacking the mutually assured destruction of a nuclear war, as it’s so much easier to conceal the source of a bioweapon attack. So, what’s left to protect us against a super plague? Well, the main issues are delivery and precision.

The easiest bioweapon delivery method is to aerosolize the germs and disperse them over a military target or city. Clearly, though, there are a few problems with this. The first is that once aerosolized, toxicity tends to drop, requiring targets to breathe in huge quantities, which is difficult when they are so dispersed. The second issue is that aggressors are at the mercy of the weather and wind.

A sudden rainstorm and the toxin will be harmlessly washed away. A change in wind direction and it may not reach the target, or worse, be blown back onto friendly forces.

An example of this is the 1993 attempted bioterrorism attack in Tokyo by the religious cult Aum Shinriyko. Twice they attempted to disperse anthrax across the city, but one attack was thwarted by sunlight, which degraded it, and the other by rain, which washed it away. Residents reported foul odours, nausea, and vomiting but were otherwise unscathed.

Another delivery method is to load the pathogens into explosives, like bombs, missiles, and artillery. Of course, this is also fairly ineffective as the blast will damage the bacterial or viral agent.

Unfortunately, delivery is a problem we might soon be able to overcome. In fact, the first solution has already been developed by the U.S.

It’s called the insect allies program and was set up by the U.S. government’s Defence Advanced Research Projects Agency (DARPA) with admirable intentions. The idea was to load insects with viruses that would deliver protective genes to the plants they landed on. Thus, guarding food supplies against disease. Unfortunately, it’s not a huge leap to load those same insects up with destructive viruses that could wipe out a nation’s food supply instead.

This has led to accusations against DARPA, claiming they are trying to create a bioweapon or, at the very least, their actions could inspire an aggressive nation to do so. The problem is that now that Pandora’s box has been opened, the insects can’t be put back in, and no one really knows what to do about it. Fortunately, though, this delivery technique still lacks precision and has the potential to harm the attacker.

However, scientists now think that both problems could be overcome by combining genetically altered pathogens with nanotechnology. This is something that a group of experts advising NATO has identified as a “potentially disruptive development that could transform the technological battlefield.”

In theory, it won’t be long before insect-like nanobots will be advanced enough to carry small amounts of ricin or lethal factor and inject them into humans. Nanocarriers and capsules could also be used to transport the smallest toxins through impermeable cell membranes and across the blood-brain barrier. This would increase their effectiveness and reduce the amount of toxin required for a fatal dose. It would also make them more durable and less likely to degrade before reaching the target.

Happily, neither the nanotech nor the gene-editing tech is quite ready yet, but experts are concerned that by 2035, it will be. Decades ago, bacteriologist Theodor Rosebury predicted, “If World War III is allowed to come, biologists and men of all related fields, including physicians, will be called upon as never before to serve alongside physicists and other scientists as instruments of human destruction.” Frighteningly, he just might’ve been right.

Key Takeaways

• Historically, biological warfare has evolved from using natural pathogens to genetically engineered diseases.
• CRISPR technology has made gene editing more accessible, raising concerns about potential misuse.
• Designer diseases could target specific ethnic groups or individuals, increasing the precision of bioweapons.
• Nanotechnology combined with genetic engineering could create highly effective and precise bioweapons by 2035.
• The Biological Weapons Convention exists, but bioengineering facilities are hard to monitor, posing a risk.

Frequently Asked Questions

What are genetically modified diseases in the context of warfare?

Genetically modified diseases in warfare refer to the use of designer pathogens, often carried by nanobots or insects, that can be engineered to be resistant to vaccines and treatments. These pathogens can be designed to target specific ethnic groups and can be delivered with precision using AI.

What is the history of biowarfare?

Biowarfare has been used for thousands of years, with early examples including the use of tularaemia patients and contaminated arrows. Advances in biotechnology have led to the development of genetically modified bioweapons, which can be more precise and deadly.

What is CRISPR and how does it relate to biowarfare?

CRISPR is a gene-editing technology that makes it quicker, easier, and cheaper to modify DNA. It has significant implications for biowarfare, as it allows for the creation of designer genes and pathogens that can be resistant to vaccines and treatments.

What are binary biological weapons?

Binary biological weapons consist of two components that are harmless on their own but become deadly when combined. These components can be a host bacteria and a virulent plasmid, which can be inserted during the flight of a missile, making them more controllable and less risky for the attacker.

What are stealth viruses and how can they be used in warfare?

Stealth viruses are viral infections that can lay dormant in a human body until activated by a trigger mechanism. They can be used in warfare to remain anonymous and to blackmail governments by threatening to activate the virus, causing widespread illness or death.

What are host-swapping diseases and how do they relate to biowarfare?

Host-swapping diseases are viruses that can jump from their natural hosts to humans, becoming more virulent and deadly. Advances in biotechnology allow scientists to select and modify these viruses to infect humans, making them a potential tool for biowarfare.

What are designer diseases and how can they be targeted?

Designer diseases are new pathogens created from scratch with specific properties and traits. They can be engineered to target specific individuals or ethnic groups, making them a precise and deadly tool for biowarfare. This removes the barrier of precision, as the disease can be designed to activate only in the target population.

What is the insect allies program and its potential misuse?

The insect allies program, developed by DARPA, involves loading insects with viruses to deliver protective genes to plants. However, this technology could be misused to load insects with destructive viruses, potentially wiping out a nation’s food supply.

What are the main challenges in preventing a genetically modified war?

The main challenges include the difficulty in regulating bioengineering facilities, the lack of mutually assured destruction, and the issues of delivery and precision. While regulations like the Biological Weapons Convention exist, they are hard to enforce due to the concealable nature of bioweapons development.

What is the potential timeline for the development of advanced bioweapons?

Experts are concerned that by 2035, the combination of nanotechnology and gene-editing technology could be advanced enough to create highly precise and deadly bioweapons, such as insect-like nanobots carrying lethal pathogens.

Sources

• Original Into the Shadows video: Genetically Modified Diseases: The Terrifying Future of Warfare
• Hero image source by Qypchak / openverse, by-sa.

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